Academy Awards 2007: Part One

As a graduate in film studies, part-owner of a film production company, and a self-confessed film geek, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the runners and riders for the 79th Academy Awards, and give my thoughts and predictions.

I generally make it a point to record the Oscars, and that way I can fast forward through all the crap and just watch the good stuff. This year, as I will be in America on Oscar night, I may make the effort to watch them live. The truth is that I don't really hold a great deal of esteem for the Academy Awards. Well, that isn't strictly true. I think they're a great opportunity for the finest filmmaking achievements of the previous 12 months to be recognised. But there just seems to be too much cynicism about them. The way that the various studios campaign for their movies to be awarded leaves me feeling that the Oscars aren't really about who is most deserving of an award, but which studio has the greater clout. Also, considering some of the Academy's past decisions, I'm not sure how seriously they can be taken as the industry's definitive gauge of cinematic excellence.

All that being said, if I wasn't at least a little seduced by all the glitz, glamour, rumour and rumination, I wouldn't be writing this blog. And if the Academy saw fit to one day honour me, I certainly wouldn't turn them down. So, onwards we go.

I should note at this time that I rarely get a chance to see new films at the cinema, and when I do they tend to be films which don't appeal to the Academy, so I'm basing my predictions on my knowledge of the Oscars.

The host - Ellen DeGeneres

A good choice in my opinion. Ellen is witty and likeable, and it will be a good change of pace to have a female host

Best picture category - Babel; The Departed; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; The Queen

Not a particularly strong bunch this time round, which makes it hard to predict a winner. It would appear that Babel is the favourite, having won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, but we all know what happened to Brokeback Mountain last year. From the reviews I've read this is actually a bit of a mis-step for Alejandro Inarritu, although it has genuine star power in the shape of Brad Pitt and Academy favourite Cate Blanchett. I wouldn't discount The Queen. It has all the hallmarks of the archetypal 'worthy' awards flick, though Frears' involvement suggests to me it may have greater artistic ambitions. Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby won in 2005 so I'd be surprised to see Iwo Jima come out on top. That leaves The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine. The former is the highest profile candidate on the list; Scorsese, DiCaprio, Damon, Nicholson, Wahlberg. For this reason is has to be considered a genuine contender. Conversely, Little Miss Sunshine is the outsider, an honour which befell Crash last year. Two years on the trot? I'll say no more.

It's disappointing when you're not strongly rooting for any one film in this category. I think I was such a fan of Inarritu's previous films that I really want Babel to be good, and for that reason I'd probably like it to win this award. In a weak category I think it will just about come out on top.

Best actor category - Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond); Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson); Peter O'Toole (Venus); Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness); Forest Whitaker (The Last King Of Scotland

For me this is a two-horse race. Whitaker has won all the awards coming into this and is considered the favourite. Anytime somebody plays a real-life character such as Idi Amin to the acclaim that Whitaker has here, they have to be instantly considered an Oscar favourite. His only opposition in my opinion is Peter O'Toole. O'Toole was offered a lifetime achievement award a few years back but turned it down on the grounds that he thought he could still win a best actor award (he never has). This could very well be his last chance and for that reason he could get the sympathy vote. DiCaprio seems to be becoming an Academy favourite, but could be hindered by the fact he was also in the high-profile The Departed. Will Smith has been nommed before but if he wasn't going to win for Ali, I can't see him winning for The Pursuit Of Happyness. I'm pleased to see Ryan Gosling nominated. I saw him in The Believer a few years back and thought he had the potential to be one of the great actors of his generation. He's the rank outsider but this nomination could propel him to greater things.

I've always been a fan of Forest Whitaker, and after another of my character actor favourites, Philip Seymour Hoffman, walked away with this award last year, nothing would please me more than to see Whitaker do the same this time around. I expect to see Reese Witherspoon handing him the award on the 24th.

Best actress category - Penelope Cruz (Volver); Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandel); Helen Mirren (The Queen); Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada); Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Or 'the English category'. Helen Mirren is the biggest certainty of this year's awards, despite being surrounded by 4 proven award season heavy hitters. Judi Dench was also nommed last year, and won a best supporting actress Oscar in 1998. Streep is an Oscar-winning machine and won a Golden Globe for her performance in The Devil Wears Prada. Penelope Cruz was awarded at Cannes for Volver, her latest collaboration with director Pedro Almodovar, but of the 5 looks the outsider. Winslet is also a multi-time nominee, although Little Children has stirred up controversy with it's depiction of a child sex offender, which could work against her.

I'm not a particular fan of any of these actresses, though I think they are all very good. I think I would most like to see Winslet win. This, more than any of the others, seems to be her time. It won't happen though. Mirren is a shoo-in.

Best director category - Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima); Stephen Frears (The Queen); Paul Greengrass (United 93); Martin Scorsese (The Departed) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)

Will this finally be Marty's year? This is his 8th nomination and he should definitely have won in '77, '81, and '91, for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas respectively. But you get the feeling that his time has past and any award now would be merely apologetic for those glaring errors of judgment. However, buzz is good and he is the favourite after winning at the Globes. He lost out to Clint Eastwood a couple of years ago, and Eastwood is again nominated against him, but this time is an outsider and could suffer from having put out two films this year. Greengrass is included despite United 93 not being in the best picture category, which makes him an unlikely winner. Frears and Inarritu are both contenders. I think a lot of people vote for the director of their best picture pick, which for me would give Inarritu in particular a very good chance.

I would honestly love to see Scorsese win an Oscar, even if he doesn't deserve it, but I have a sneaking feeling it will be first-time nominee Inarritu celebrating.

Best original screenplay category - Guillermo Arriaga (Babel); Iris Yamashita, Paul Haggis (Letters From Iwo Jima); Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine); Guillermo del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth); Peter Morgan (The Queen)

Paul Haggis won this award last year for Crash, and could be in for another win here. With Iwo Jima not really being in the running for any of the major awards, people could see this category as a chance to recognise it. Arriaga could also profit from the overall success of Babel, though his multilayered narrative, much like Crash last year, and expansive story set on 3 different continents, would perhaps make him a worthy winner. Michael Arndt is also in with a chance. Good storytelling is a staple of indie filmmaking and Little Miss Sunshine is the big independent film of the year. Peter Morgan is a dark horse with The Queen's subject matter likely appealing to the Academy, whereas del Toro, with his foreign language fantasy film, is a rank outsider.

Arriaga is a great writer and I'd like to see him or del Toro win this award, just to upset the apple-cart. My money is on Arriaga.

That's all for part one of my Oscars blog. I'll cover the rest of the categories in part two.