Academy Awards 2007: Part Two

This is the second part of my Oscars analysis and predictions.

Best adapted screenplay category - Sacha Baron Cohen et al (Borat); Alfonso Cuaron et al (Children of Men); William Monahan (The Departed); Todd Field, Tom Perrotta (Little Children); Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)

It seems obvious that the best picture winner would win one of the screenplay awards, which is why The Departed immediately leaps off the page here, and is certainly in with a chance. Borat has been a cultural phenomenom in the States, and I'm sure the Academy would like to show how 'cool' they are by recognising it in some way. I'd rule out Children of Men. Though the premise is good, Cuaron and his co-writers made a meal of the characterisation. The subject matter of Little Children may be too edgy for the Academy's tastes, whereas Notes on a Scandal seems tailor-made for Oscar night.

Something in me wants to see Field and Perrotta win for Little Children. I just feel it would be a refreshingly brave choice. I have a feeling that Sacha Baron Cohen and his team of writers may run out popular winners though.

Best supporting actor category - Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine); Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children); Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond); Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls); Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Jack Nicholson casts a giant shadow over this category. Everyone talked of his Oscar-worthy performance in The Departed, yet it's co-star Mark Wahlberg who gets the films only acting nomination. That could work against him. Eddie Murphy won the Golden Globe which would have to make him the favourite here, though veteran actor Alan Arkin would be a popular winner. Playing a paedophile probably won't win Jackie Earle Haley many votes, and Hounsou's second nomination is unlikely to yield any better results than his first.

I like the underdog so I'll be rooting for Haley, though I can't see anything other than a Murphy win.

Best supporting actress category - Adriana Barraza (Babel); Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal); Rinko Kikuchi (Babel); Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls); Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)

This one is fairly clear-cut and should see a supporting actor/actress double for the otherwise largely ignored Dreamgirls. Jennifer Hudson proved to be a very popular winner at the Golden Globes and that should carry her to success here. With Hudson around it's hard to see youngster Abigail Breslin doing a Tatum O'Neal and walking away with this award but stranger things have happened. Blanchett is also always worth a shout. The two Babel girls will cancel each other out.

Well, I'm a big Blanchett fan but she's won this one before so maybe I'll root for the Japanese girl just to be different. Ultimately it doesn't matter as Hudson will dance away with this one.

Best cinematography category - Vilmos Zsigmond (The Black Dahlia); Emmanuel Lubezki (Children of Men); Dick Pope (The Illusionist); Guillermo Navarro (Pan's Labyrinth); Wally Pfister (The Prestige)

Strange to see none of the major films being nominated in this category, which makes it a very open field. Of the five, Pan's Labyrinth was the most highly acclaimed by the critics and offers something vastly different which could make it stand out in the crowd. However, Zsigmond's recreation of 1940's Hollywood will surely appeal to the voters.

I'd like to see Guillermo Navarro win, and I think I'll get my wish.

Best foreign language film category - After the Wedding; Days of Glory; Pan's Labyrinth; The Lives of Others; Water

Pan's Labyrinth would seem a likely winner on paper due to its recognition in other categories and comparitively large US distribution, but this category rarely works that way. German cinema is going through a purple patch right now which means The Lives of Others is a strong contender. Canadian film The Barbarian Invasions won this award two years ago so that may count against Water.

Pan's Labyrinth is hailed as one of the films of the year so I think it would be fitting if it won this award. But I feel the Germans will take it. Not on penalties.

The others

I expect Babel to take the editing honours, whereas Pan's Labyrinth should win for art direction and makeup. Marie Antoinette deserves to take the costume design award but it will probably go to The Queen. One of the three songs from Dreamgirls to be nominated will likely win best original song, whilst Notes on a Scandal could pick up a sympathy award for best score after missing out in the bigger categories. Best sound will probably go to Dreamgirls, with Letters From Iwo Jima getting the sound editing nod. That just leaves Poseidon to win best visual effects for the technical awards.

John Lasseter is something of an Oscar favourite which should see his Cars get the best animated feature gong, and the L.A liberals should finally see Al Gore voted in, this time in the shape of An Inconvenient Truth winning the best documentary feature award.

That concludes my look at the 2007 Academy Awards. Not a vintage year by any means but there's plenty of interesting stories waiting to be told. I'll probably do a follow up blog looking at where I went wrong. Enjoy the show.